Posts tagged with "recession"
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The Markets Of 2023
The year 2023 is behind us, and this year was definitely less eventful than the past 3 years. Since COVID hit, things have changed quite a bit. It all started with the virus of course that wreaked havoc all over the world at the same time. There were a lot of side effects. Many lost loved ones, we were restricted to home isolation and lock downs were introduced. For the first time ever, we had everything closed including schools. Only the emergency services were running. The new work from home culture started. Then came pumping money in the fear and anticipation of reduced spending. The free flow of money caused inflation because people now had more money but nowhere to spend. Remember, everything was closed, so you could spend on nothing but food and health. Then came interest rate hikes to control the inflation. What a crazy ride.
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Retiring In A Bear Market
I already wrote a bunch of posts about 4% rule on my blog. Most recently I explained how early retirement might work during a prolonged recession. You have also seen how 4% rule is working out for me. Then there is that topic about whether 4% rule actually works in India given the high inflation, which we found out might actually work better in India. But then why should we stop the discussion there? Let us talk about retiring in a bear market. Actually I am not going to do any analysis, but will just point you to an interesting article I read recently.
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Retiring Early During A Recession
A reader asks “Can you write a post on how early retirement works in a bear market (potential recession) scenario going for say 1-2 more years earning less than 10% or even say 6%. Meaning a real return of 0% as per your assumption. What kind of planning should folks who have already retired and folks who are planning can take. Keeping a good buffer is definitely one option but any other thoughts to discuss there (fixed income vs equity balance or others) will be great to see”. So lets see what it takes to be retired in this situation and if there is something we can do to reduce the impact of an unexpected long recessionary climate.
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Correction, Bear or Recession?
We are going through some exciting times in equity market. It has been dropping for the past few weeks and media has opened up the discussion of possible recession. I say, we are no where near recession yet. I might agree to the fact that this is near the start of a bear market. Any drop in the market you have been experiencing in the past few weeks or even months is just a correction at best. Of course there are no proper definitions for each of the terms – correction, bear and recession, but there are some generally accepted ones. So we just need to check the definitions and see where we are in the market cycle.
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Sensex and Nifty Down by 30%
At close today, both Sensex and Nifty are down by 30%. We are officially in bear territory. It is considered a bear market if the market has fallen more than 20% from the recent highs and the investor sentiment is negative. Some market pundits are predicting that there is going to be a recession worse than the 2008 crisis. I have no idea if that will happen, but I am not worried at all. Also I cannot predict market, so I can't even tell if they are correct or not. But I have a plan.
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