Posts tagged with "inflation" - page 2
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Time To Revisit My Expectations?
Most of my finance related numbers for retirement were based on an inflation of 6% and investment returns of 10%. Going by the recent data, neither inflation nor returns are inline with my expectations. We are in a high inflation and low returns period of a market cycle. The worst part is that the returns from both equity and debt are low at the same time. While it is not as bad in India, elsewhere in the world, that is causing a lot of pain. Since the rest of the world will affect India at some point, I thought it was time to revisit my numbers and see if they still make sense in the future as I continue my long retirement journey.
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Vehicle Inflation
Since I recently purchased a new car, my insurance has shot up quite a bit. I thought this would be a good time to look at my vehicle insurance inflation before the major jump. As I always say, it does not matter what the government published inflation numbers say, the question is how much is your personal inflation. Your corpus, the safe withdrawal rate and thus your financial independence depends on your inflation. So it is always a good idea to know your inflation numbers. In the past, I’ve written a few posts on our inflation of a few things. Here are some of them if you are interested:
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Is It The End Of 4% Rule Then?
I have written so many articles on 4% rule, that it feels like I can make a living by just writing about it. Yet we keep coming back to it because times have changed, or may be the 4% rule does not work in Indian context or because it may not work during recession and what not. The latest in this saga is this article I read a few days ago. Without going into too many details, the article suggests that a new research found that the 4% spending rule may be too high and we should probably go for a 1.9% rule instead. That sucks. I made my whole early retirement planning based on the 4% rule and it seems like I may be doomed.
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Inflation Is Hurting The Stock Market
Inflation is always bad news. This is nothing new anymore now is it? I have already written several posts about inflation in the recent past. Generally it affects your expenses, but when central banks decide to fix it, your investments also take a hit. Take the case of FED and US stock market. First the FED printed way too much money and the government handed free checks to everyone during COVID-19. At the time it seemed like a good idea. Later, when the FED wanted to stop printing, it could not because, well, socialist activities are hard to discontinue. Moreover the stock market would get spooked every time they even mentioned quantitative tightening, let alone interest rate hikes.
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How Is 4% Rule Working Out For Me?
I ended the previous post with a resounding “yes” for the question on whether 4% rule works in India or not. I also mentioned that given what we know about current inflation and return expectations in India, we can assume that the investment will last about 50 years assuming a conservative 30% asset allocation. In this article I want to show you how my portfolio was performing because I retired based on 4% rule with a bit of a buffer. So how is that working out for me? Given the market correction in the past few months and the increasing inflation, am I draining more money than I expected and am I at risk of out living my corpus? Lets find out.
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4% Rule In Indian Context
I have already written a few posts on 4% rule, but some readers were not sure if it really works in Indian context. We don’t have the equivalent of the Trinity study (which resulted in the 4% rule) done here in India. Or at least I am not aware of one. For those of you who don’t know the Trinity study, I will brief you on it. Basically the study found that if you withdraw 4% from your retirement account every year after accounting for inflation your retirement fund should last 30 years or more. But the study was done in the US using bond, inflation and equity market data from 1925 to 1995. It is really not a rule as much as a thumb rule. While I don’t have the luxury of such nice data for India, in this post, I will attempt to use some crude data loosely based on the same notion.
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Impact Of Repo Rate Hike
In the previous post we discussed about inflation and how it can be tamed by central banks. One of the ways to reduce inflation is by reducing the amount of money people spend. This can be done by increasing the rate of interests on loans or by making safe investments so attractive that people will save money in banks instead of spending on things. Think of it this way – if your home loan EMI increases, you will have less to spend on other things right? Alternatively, suppose you don’t have any loans, but you are a saver. Then if the FD interest rate went up from 5% to 6%, you might save more instead of spending and causing inflation. That was a very simplified explanation of course, but lets just go with it.
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The Curious Case Of Inflation
RBI has finally increased the repo rate after inflation has been stubbornly high for more than three quarters. I was expecting this to have happened sooner, and yet they were faster than the US central bank. Inflation in the US has been out of control for a very long time now and yet the Fed has not taken any action. Their reasoning for the longest time has been that the inflation is transitory and will eventually come down without any rate action. Why is it transitory? The explanation was that the inflation was due to decrease in supply and not due to increase in demand and when the supply catches up with the demand the inflation should disappear. So far at least that was not the case and Fed has been printing money and keeping the interest rate low. What a mess.
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TV Inflation
It is the season of inflation. Lately we have been hearing a lot about inflation and I have been writing a lot about it too. Still if you thought that wasn’t enough, here is one more for you :). Normally I don’t calculate inflation of anything unless I have at least 10 years worth of data. As I look back, I have as much data on my TVs, so why not calculate the inflation of a TV? Remember that inflation should be looked at holistically. Knowing inflation of one device like TV or laptop does not really makes sense, but all these inflations add up to your final inflation number. It is just a fun exercise and lets keep it that way.
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What Type Of An Investor Are You?
Sensex is where it was some 7 months ago. We have escalating war on one side and growing inflation on the other side as no nation is immune to the ill effects of loose monetary policy and facing the after effects of stringent COVID restrictions. Sri Lanka is defaulting on its external debt. A nation default on its debt obligation is such a bad news. None of these are good signs and yet the stock market is happily moving forward. What should an investor to do in this situation? The answer may not be quite as exciting as one would think. It is quite boring and you probably already know what I am going to say. Just stay the course, follow your goals, maintain your asset allocation blah blah.
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