Posts in category "financial-planning" - page 4
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Retiring In A Bear Market
I already wrote a bunch of posts about 4% rule on my blog. Most recently I explained how early retirement might work during a prolonged recession. You have also seen how 4% rule is working out for me. Then there is that topic about whether 4% rule actually works in India given the high inflation, which we found out might actually work better in India. But then why should we stop the discussion there? Let us talk about retiring in a bear market. Actually I am not going to do any analysis, but will just point you to an interesting article I read recently.
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Franklin Payment Is Now Complete
If you did not already know, I had a bunch of investments in Franklin Ultra Short Term Fund. At one point, I had as much as 50% of my fixed income invested in it. However, my asset allocation being almost 80% in fixed income at that time, my exposure to this specific debt fund was almost 40%. Now imagine how it would feel like to know that Franklin has decided to wind-up the fund? I was not worried that I will lose the money, but the problem is that most of my investments are now illiquid. The whole point of investing in mutual funds was for the liquidity.
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4% Rule In Indian Context
I have already written a few posts on 4% rule, but some readers were not sure if it really works in Indian context. We don’t have the equivalent of the Trinity study (which resulted in the 4% rule) done here in India. Or at least I am not aware of one. For those of you who don’t know the Trinity study, I will brief you on it. Basically the study found that if you withdraw 4% from your retirement account every year after accounting for inflation your retirement fund should last 30 years or more. But the study was done in the US using bond, inflation and equity market data from 1925 to 1995. It is really not a rule as much as a thumb rule. While I don’t have the luxury of such nice data for India, in this post, I will attempt to use some crude data loosely based on the same notion.
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Correction, Bear or Recession?
We are going through some exciting times in equity market. It has been dropping for the past few weeks and media has opened up the discussion of possible recession. I say, we are no where near recession yet. I might agree to the fact that this is near the start of a bear market. Any drop in the market you have been experiencing in the past few weeks or even months is just a correction at best. Of course there are no proper definitions for each of the terms – correction, bear and recession, but there are some generally accepted ones. So we just need to check the definitions and see where we are in the market cycle.
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Momentum Or Contrarian?
There are many investment styles, but I am generally in conflict with momentum investing vs contrarian investing. Sometimes I feel like I should be following the momentum style of investing. And most other times I feel like I should be a contrarian investor. If you don’t know those two different styles of investing, don’t worry I will give an explanation. Sometimes momentum strategy works better and at other times a contrarian style works better. Knowing which will work better at any given time is all together another difficult task. I am not really sure which one works best in the long term though.
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Financial Independence Trend
There has been a sharp rise in the F.I.R.E. trend in the recent past. For those who don’t know, F.I.R.E stands for financial independence and retire early. It is the new fad in town which I am also part of :). In the past, people searching for financial independence used to trend around 20 queries a day on Google search. It has more than tripled if you look at the data from the last one year. I wonder why so many are looking for financial independence. Perhaps COVID-19 and the resulting work from home culture are to blame. Or may be the sudden rise in wealth because of the recent stock market bull run is the cause. I have no idea, but people seem to be more interested in F.I.R.E in the recent past more than before. Or at least that is what Google trends is indicating.
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Impact Of Repo Rate Hike
In the previous post we discussed about inflation and how it can be tamed by central banks. One of the ways to reduce inflation is by reducing the amount of money people spend. This can be done by increasing the rate of interests on loans or by making safe investments so attractive that people will save money in banks instead of spending on things. Think of it this way – if your home loan EMI increases, you will have less to spend on other things right? Alternatively, suppose you don’t have any loans, but you are a saver. Then if the FD interest rate went up from 5% to 6%, you might save more instead of spending and causing inflation. That was a very simplified explanation of course, but lets just go with it.
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The Curious Case Of Inflation
RBI has finally increased the repo rate after inflation has been stubbornly high for more than three quarters. I was expecting this to have happened sooner, and yet they were faster than the US central bank. Inflation in the US has been out of control for a very long time now and yet the Fed has not taken any action. Their reasoning for the longest time has been that the inflation is transitory and will eventually come down without any rate action. Why is it transitory? The explanation was that the inflation was due to decrease in supply and not due to increase in demand and when the supply catches up with the demand the inflation should disappear. So far at least that was not the case and Fed has been printing money and keeping the interest rate low. What a mess.
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How Much Do You Need To Retire At 45
A few days ago, I read an article where the reader wanted to know how much corpus they need to retire by 45. I thought it was interesting and wanted to use my own calculators to see what numbers I would arrive at. I was surprised at how very close my number was, compared to what the advisor in that article gave. But do remember that for the exact same question different people will give different answers based on their own past experience and their biases. Anytime you take financial advice, do keep that in mind. No one has the perfect right answer. They are just approximations to lead you in the right direction. In the end, you need to figure out what the right advice for you is.
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What Type Of An Investor Are You?
Sensex is where it was some 7 months ago. We have escalating war on one side and growing inflation on the other side as no nation is immune to the ill effects of loose monetary policy and facing the after effects of stringent COVID restrictions. Sri Lanka is defaulting on its external debt. A nation default on its debt obligation is such a bad news. None of these are good signs and yet the stock market is happily moving forward. What should an investor to do in this situation? The answer may not be quite as exciting as one would think. It is quite boring and you probably already know what I am going to say. Just stay the course, follow your goals, maintain your asset allocation blah blah.
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